2.2. Size and Growth of India's Population

India is the second most populous country in the world after China, with a total population of 121 crores (or 1.21 billion) according to the Census of India 2011.

This statement establishes India as a significant country in terms of population size, coming second only to China. As of the census conducted in 2011, India had a population of approximately 1.21 billion, indicating a massive demographic presence on the global stage.

Think of the population of India like a city that's so large that it could be compared to multiple countries combined. Just as a bustling city like Tokyo or New York is instantly recognizable for its size and energy, India's population is a defining characteristic.

The growth rate of India’s population has not always been very high. Between 1901–1951 the average annual growth rate did not exceed 1.33%, a modest rate of growth. In fact between 1911 and 1921 there was a negative rate of growth of – 0.03%. This was because of the influenza epidemic during 1918–19 which killed about 12.5 million persons or 5% of the total population of the country.

From 1901 to 1951, India's population grew at a relatively slow pace, averaging less than 1.33% each year. There was even a period (1911-1921) where the population shrank due to a deadly flu epidemic. The drastic impact of the 1918 flu is highlighted, where about 12.5 million people lost their lives, significantly affecting the population size.

Imagine a small town that experienced a drought, significantly reducing its numbers as families migrated elsewhere for survival. Just like that town, India faced a population decline due to a health crisis that affected large numbers of people at once.

The growth rate of population substantially increased after independence from British rule going up to 2.2% during 1961-1981. Since then although the annual growth rate has decreased it remains one of the highest in the developing world. Chart 1 shows the comparative movement of the crude birth and death rates. The impact of the demographic transition phase is clearly seen in the graph where they begin to diverge from each other after the decade of 1921 to 1931.

After India gained independence in 1947, the population growth rate saw a significant surge, hitting 2.2% between 1961 and 1981. This high growth rate, while tapering down in the following years, still positions India among the countries with high growth rates in the developing world. The demographic transition refers to the shift from high birth and death rates to lower rates, and this is illustrated in the provided chart, showing that after 1921, death rates dropped sharply while birth rates continued to remain high for some time.

Think about a family that has just moved to a bigger house (independence) and has many children (high growth rate). At first, they feel overwhelmed with all the responsibilities (high birth and death rates), but as they settle in and adapt to their new environment, they learn better ways to manage (lower rates), still growing but more sustainably.

The principal reasons for the decline in the death rate after 1921 were increased levels of control over famines and epidemic diseases. Improvements in medical cures for these diseases, programmes for mass vaccination, and efforts to improve sanitation helped to control epidemics.

Following 1921, India experienced a marked decline in death rates primarily due to better management of famine conditions and epidemic health crises. Key improvements included advancements in medical treatments, widespread vaccination efforts, and enhanced sanitation practices, all of which contributed to a healthier population with lower mortality rates.

Consider a community that implements better hygiene practices and builds a local clinic. Over time, less people get sick and die from preventable diseases, illustrating how organized health initiatives can transform a community's overall health status.

Unlike the death rate, the birth rate has not registered a sharp fall. This is because the birth rate is a sociocultural phenomenon that is relatively slow to change. By and large, increased levels of prosperity exert a strong downward pull on the birth rate.

While death rates have significantly decreased due to healthcare advancements, birth rates have not followed suit at the same pace. This disparity is attributed to sociocultural factors that impact family size, as societal norms and values around family size and childbearing tend to change gradually. Generally, as people become more prosperous, they tend to have fewer children, which can eventually lead to a decrease in birth rates.

Imagine how people's ideas about family size evolve over generations. Just as trends in fashion change slowly over time, parents today may choose to have fewer children compared to past generations, reflecting a shift in cultural values towards smaller families.

Some states, like Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have managed to bring down their total fertility rates (TFR) to 1.7 each (2016). This means that the average woman in these states produces only 1.7 children, which is below the ‘replacement level’. But there are some states, notably Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, which still have very high TFRs.

In certain Indian states, fertility rates have drastically reduced; for example, in Andhra Pradesh and Punjab, the average woman has only 1.7 children, which is below the threshold needed to maintain the population size (the replacement level). In contrast, states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to exhibit high fertility rates, indicating varying levels of success in family planning and cultural acceptance towards smaller families across different regions.

It's like a neighborhood where some families are choosing to have only one or two kids because of their new lifestyles, while others stick to larger families due to cultural traditions. The differences in choices reflect a broader trend seen across various regions.

Furthermore, as per economic survey 2018-19, these two states will also account for almost half (50%) of the additions to the Indian population up to the year 2041.

Looking ahead, it is anticipated that states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will contribute significantly to India's population growth, accounting for nearly half of the total increase by 2041. This projection emphasizes the critical need for focused population control measures and health services in these regions to manage the expected growth effectively.

Consider a school where a certain class is expected to grow so large that the school must prepare for additional resources like teachers and classroom space to accommodate the influx. Similarly, India must prepare for the projected increases in population in specific states.

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