3. Evaluating Risk in Disaster Scenarios

So, also here is another chart you can see from 1950 to 2005, the number of events that flood is increasing, storm also are increasing, earthquake is almost the same as from 1950’s to 2005, you cannot see much huge differences but other disasters you can see they are increasing very prominently.

This chunk discusses the trends in disaster events from 1950 to 2005. It highlights that floods and storms are becoming more frequent over this time period, while earthquakes have remained relatively stable. This indicates a shift in the patterns of natural disasters, with certain types increasing more than others.

Imagine looking at the weather patterns over several decades in your city. You might notice more frequent heavy rains and storms, just like the increasing number of floods discussed here. Just as you would prepare your home for more stormy weather, communities must assess how these changing patterns affect their risk and preparedness.

So, we are talking about hazards that this landslide or this stone when it is exposed to heavy rainfall or earthquake, it can have some potentiality to cause human injury or loss or property damage. It may cause, not necessarily that it will cause.

In this chunk, hazards are defined as natural events, like landslides or earthquakes, that have the potential to cause harm. The emphasis is on the uncertainty of the damage; just because a hazard exists does not mean it will lead to injury or loss, but it does pose a potential risk that must be managed.

Consider a thunderstorm; it has the potential to generate lightning. While it may or may not strike your house, the risk of damage exists. Just like this event, hazards create potential risks that communities must prepare for, even if the exact outcome is uncertain.

So, this one we are calling as exposure; the situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other tangible human assets located in hazard-prone areas.

Exposure refers to how many people and assets are located in areas that are vulnerable to disasters. Increasing exposure makes a community more at risk because more lives and properties could be harmed during a disaster. Understanding exposure is vital in disaster risk management.

Think of a house built near a riverbank versus one built on a hill. The house on the riverbank has higher exposure to flooding than the one on the hill, making it more susceptible to flood-related risks. Communities must assess these situations to effectively manage disaster risks.

Another one is the quantity; how many people or structure or buildings are exposed to the hazard, another one is the amount and type of activities they support.

This section outlines the factors that influence exposure, such as the number of people and structures in hazard-prone areas, as well as the types of activities those people and buildings support. For example, areas with significant industrial activities may have different exposure risks compared to residential zones.

Imagine a bustling city with many high-rise buildings and factories versus a quiet village with few houses. The city, with its high density of people and activities, holds greater exposure to risks like earthquakes or floods than the village, influencing how each community prepares for disasters.

It also matter that if this hazard would take place at day time, when people are not working, people are working outside, people are not at their home. Or maybe night time when people are sleeping so, at day time of course, we have less people who are exposed to hazards compared to night time.

The timing of when a disaster strikes can significantly affect exposure. During the day, fewer people may be at home compared to night time, which can lead to differences in the outcome of a disaster. This highlights the importance of timing in assessing risk.

Think of a fire in an office building that occurs during business hours when many people are inside versus late at night when the building is empty. The exposure to risk is much higher during the day because more people are present, showcasing the critical role of timing in disaster scenarios.

If in a place that is prone to landslides or potentially to have a landslide, like this one you can see and maybe in this village, the all people living there are old people; senior citizens above 65 years old.

This chunk emphasizes that the characteristics of the population at risk, such as age or economic status, can influence how vulnerable they are to disasters. For example, an older population may be more vulnerable in the event of a landslide compared to a younger, more mobile population.

Consider a neighborhood with many elderly residents against one with a mix of ages. In case of a quick evacuation due to a disaster, the elderly may struggle more, pointing to how demographic factors can affect risk levels in communities.

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