1.2. Disagreements Among Experts

Experts and scientists are called and but disagreement continued about risk.

In this chunk, we learn that despite having many experts and scientists evaluating the concept of risk, there remains a significant disagreement about what constitutes 'risk'. It's essential to understand that risk can be subjective; different people or experts may perceive the idea of risk in various ways based on their experiences and knowledge.

Think of a group of friends discussing the risk of skydiving. Some might say it's a thrilling adventure while others believe it's too dangerous. Each friend's perspective shapes their understanding of the risk involved.

So, actual risk we as scientists saying that we there is actually an actual risk, what is that? So, we are saying that there are 2 kind of risk; one is objective risk that is scientific risk; another one is the perceived risk.

This chunk distinguishes between two types of risk: objective risk and perceived risk. Objective risk is based on scientific evidence and factual data, while perceived risk is how individuals view or anticipate risks based on personal beliefs and experiences. These two types can differ greatly, leading to misunderstandings and conflicts regarding what risks are significant.

Consider a person who believes that traveling by airplane is very risky because they are afraid of heights. This perception may lead them to avoid flying, even though statistically, flying is much safer than driving a car—which represents the actual objective risk.

Now, risk in general, we know the probability of a particular adverse event to occur during a particular period of time.

Risk is defined mathematically as the probability of an undesirable event happening during a specific timeframe. This chunk emphasizes the importance of understanding that risk is not random but instead can be quantified and measured in relation to time and potential consequences.

Imagine planting a tiny apple tree. You know there's a risk it might not grow because of diseases or bad weather. However, by knowing the average growth conditions and probabilities, you can better assess how likely it is to succeed within a year.

So, determinant of risk; how we determine a risk? Generally, we determine any kind of risk by numerical measures, like expressed in chance of that much cost in dollar or in rupees.

This part explains how risks are measured using quantitative data. By expressing risks in numerical terms, such as financial costs or human lives lost, we can better understand and compare risks. This numeric approach provides clarity and aids in decision-making related to risks.

For instance, if a city calculates that a hurricane could potentially cause $100 million in damages, they can weigh the investment in better drainage systems versus the costs of repairs and lives affected post-disaster.

Now, risk estimation progress; if we want to progress more if you want to refine our estimation, one thing is very clear that we need data, without data we cannot do it...

This chunk highlights the necessity of data in accurately estimating risk. The more data available, the more precise the risk assessments can be. However, it also warns that stakeholder perceptions, which are subjective, should not overly skew disaster risk management plans.

Consider a weather forecast. The meteorologists collect vast amounts of data from satellites and sensors to accurately predict storms. This data-driven approach significantly reduces the uncertainty involved in weather-related risks.

they are saying that it is very important for the risk manager that what scientifically true, and what people think we should reduce that gap...

Here, the focus is on the importance of communicating scientific findings about risks to the public effectively. There is often a gap between what scientists know about risk and what the public believes, and it is essential for risk managers to close this gap for improved disaster preparedness.

For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, public health officials had to work hard to communicate why wearing masks was crucial, despite some people perceiving this as unnecessary. Bridging this knowledge gap helped protect communities.

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