Here is a very important data, then what is risk? Why people are not believing risk? there is a Britain Royal Society; they publish a White book on risk assessment in 1982 and in 1983, it was revised again.

They actually asking many famous acknowledged internationally acclaimed professors, scientists to estimate and tell them what is risky, to talk about a risky but very funny thing is that when these society is publishing this white paper, they are saying then you know disclaimer they are not saying that this report is not a report of the society, the views expressed are those of the authors alone.

Experts and scientists are called and but disagreement continued about risk. So, actual risk we as scientists saying that we there is actually an actual risk, what is that? So, we are saying that there are 2 kind of risk; one is objective risk that is scientific risk; another one is the perceived risk.

Risk in general, we know the probability of a particular adverse event to occur during a particular period of time. So there is a probability question in a particular time question, and it would challenge the existing situation, and so it is a consequence and is the event probability.

So, determinant of risk; how we determine a risk? Generally, we determine any kind of risk by numerical measures, like expressed in chance of that much cost in dollar or in rupees, loss is expected to due to a flood, a loss of productivity has been lost, that much of amount due to earthquake so, these always we express in numerical figure; 5 billion, 20 billion, 200 billion, or, 50 people died, 100 people died like that.

So, probability and magnitude often adverse event. Now, risk estimation progress; if we want to progress more if you want to refine our estimation, one thing is very clear that we need data, without data we cannot do it so, more data where you have, the more fine-tuned, more cutting-edge estimations we can make.

So, but they are making it very simple, the scientists are saying that you need data but remember that risk perception that is subjective risk, what laypeople think. Please do not incorporate that element in disaster risk management, is it really so?

Let us look, reducing the gap; they are saying that it is very important for the risk manager that what scientifically true, and what people think we should reduce that gap, we should tell people that what is scientifically true and why it is true, what they think is not right.

For example here, if you are smoking you are at risk, you believe or not you may be doing it because you want to be macho, or your body needs nicotine, but once you were smoking you are at risk that is very clear. Or maybe if you want to be a flamboyant hero like this guy you are at risk, if you are doing it at high or any place, you are at risk, you believe it or not, is simply up to your perceptions, but scientifically we can tell that this is your problem.

Now the question, is it a fun or danger? Scaring? Whose is it fun for the young people, also for the old people, is it danger for the young people or for the old people. So, young kids and old seniors, so the probability; the person’s perceptions of the probability; fun or danger, which one?