1.6. The Gap Between Scientific Truth and Public Perception

Here is a very important data, then what is risk? Why people are not believing risk? there is a Britain Royal Society; they publish a White book on risk assessment in 1982 and in 1983, it was revised again.

This chunk introduces the concept of risk and questions why people often do not believe in scientific assessments of risk. It mentions the British Royal Society's publication of a significant document on risk assessment, which illustrates an organized effort to understand and communicate risks scientifically.

Think of this as a health campaign about smoking. Even with clear scientific data showing that smoking causes cancer, some people still choose to smoke. This reflects a disconnect between expert knowledge and personal belief.

They actually asking many famous acknowledged internationally acclaimed professors, scientists to estimate and tell them what is risky, to talk about a risky but very funny thing is that when these society is publishing this white paper, they are saying then you know disclaimer they are not saying that this report is not a report of the society, the views expressed are those of the authors alone.

The British Royal Society sought assessments from renowned experts to outline risks. However, they included a disclaimer in their publication indicating that the views presented were solely those of the authors and not a collective view of the Society itself. This reveals a cautious approach to risk communication.

Imagine a group of doctors writing a health advisory on the effects of diet, but adding a note that the advice is only personal opinions. It could make readers question the validity of the information.

Experts and scientists are called and but disagreement continued about risk. So, actual risk we as scientists saying that we there is actually an actual risk, what is that? So, we are saying that there are 2 kind of risk; one is objective risk that is scientific risk; another one is the perceived risk.

This part distinguishes between two kinds of risk: 'objective risk' which is based on scientific evidence, and 'perceived risk' which reflects how individuals interpret risks based on personal experience or societal influence. This gap in understanding contributes to confusion about what constitutes true risk.

Consider a roller coaster. The objective risk based on safety records shows it's statistically safe, but some people perceive it as dangerous due to their fear of heights. This difference in perception can lead to disagreement about the ride's safety.

Risk in general, we know the probability of a particular adverse event to occur during a particular period of time. So there is a probability question in a particular time question, and it would challenge the existing situation, and so it is a consequence and is the event probability.

This chunk teaches that risk is fundamentally about the likelihood of negative events occurring in a specific timeframe. Understanding this can help contextualize risks and their potential consequences, emphasizing the need for systematic analysis of risks.

Think of it like weather forecasting. If a weather report says there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow, it means that statistically, it is likely to rain, but there is still a chance it won't, illustrating how we think about risk in terms of probabilities.

So, determinant of risk; how we determine a risk? Generally, we determine any kind of risk by numerical measures, like expressed in chance of that much cost in dollar or in rupees, loss is expected to due to a flood, a loss of productivity has been lost, that much of amount due to earthquake so, these always we express in numerical figure; 5 billion, 20 billion, 200 billion, or, 50 people died, 100 people died like that.

In this section, we learn that risks are often quantified in financial terms or loss of life, which can provide clarity in decision-making and prioritization. These numerical figures help to present the severity of risks in a way that is tangible and understandable.

It's similar to car insurance; when accidents happen, losses are measured in dollars. Understanding how much money is involved helps people grasp the concept of risk and make informed choices.

So, probability and magnitude often adverse event. Now, risk estimation progress; if we want to progress more if you want to refine our estimation, one thing is very clear that we need data, without data we cannot do it so, more data where you have, the more fine-tuned, more cutting-edge estimations we can make.

This chunk emphasizes that accurate risk estimation relies heavily on data. Without substantial data collection, our understanding of risks cannot advance. The more data we have, the more precise our risk analysis can become.

Consider scientists tracking the spread of a disease. The more cases they analyze, the better they can understand the outbreak and develop effective containment strategies. Data is critical for making informed decisions in public health.

So, but they are making it very simple, the scientists are saying that you need data but remember that risk perception that is subjective risk, what laypeople think. Please do not incorporate that element in disaster risk management, is it really so?

Here, we explore the challenge of incorporating public perception into risk management. Scientists caution against letting subjective views influence disaster response strategies as these can skew the understanding of actual risks.

Imagine if emergency services were to only operate based on people's fears instead of hard data. For instance, if a community fears a flood but no data supports that, directing resources based solely on those fears could lead to mismanaged responses.

Let us look, reducing the gap; they are saying that it is very important for the risk manager that what scientifically true, and what people think we should reduce that gap, we should tell people that what is scientifically true and why it is true, what they think is not right.

This part of the text discusses the essential task of risk managers in bridging the gap between expert scientific knowledge and public perception. Communicating scientific truth effectively involves explaining the evidence behind risks and addressing misconceptions.

Think of a teacher explaining math to students who struggle with certain concepts. The teacher uses relatable examples and thorough explanations to help students understand and change their misconceptions.

For example here, if you are smoking you are at risk, you believe or not you may be doing it because you want to be macho, or your body needs nicotine, but once you were smoking you are at risk that is very clear. Or maybe if you want to be a flamboyant hero like this guy you are at risk, if you are doing it at high or any place, you are at risk, you believe it or not, is simply up to your perceptions, but scientifically we can tell that this is your problem.

This portion illustrates how personal choices, like smoking, often conflict with scientific understanding of risk. Even if an individual does not perceive smoking as risky, scientific evidence clearly shows its dangers, highlighting the gap between perception and objective reality.

Consider skydiving. Some might view it as an exciting challenge without considering the risks involved, while experts see it as inherently dangerous, demonstrating how differing perspectives can lead to contrasting views on risk.

Now the question, is it a fun or danger? Scaring? Whose is it fun for the young people, also for the old people, is it danger for the young people or for the old people. So, young kids and old seniors, so the probability; the person’s perceptions of the probability; fun or danger, which one?

This concluding part reflects on how different age groups perceive risk differently. It poses questions about whether activities are viewed as fun or dangerous based on individual perspectives, emphasizing the subjective nature of risk perception in various demographics.

Think about riding a bicycle. For a child, it's thrilling and fun, but for an elderly person, it might evoke fears of falling. The same activity can present different perceived risks based on age and context.

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