1. External Variables and Vulnerability

On the other hand, we have external one which we cannot less control, is an exogenous variable. What are they? External variables is considered in this double structure of vulnerability as exposure.

External variables are factors beyond our control that affect vulnerability; they are categorized as exogenous variables. These variables are crucial in understanding how exposure to risks works within the framework of vulnerability.

Think of external variables as weather conditions impacting a farmer. If a sudden drought occurs, it’s beyond the farmer's control, yet it significantly affects the farm's productivity and the farmer’s livelihood.

So, exposure to what, some shock or some events like it depends on what kind of shocks, is it natural phenomena or some epidemics or not merely a kind of special exposure but how defenseless like I am for that one.

Exposure refers to the extent individuals are subject to shocks such as natural disasters or health crises. It's not just about the type of shock but also how vulnerable an individual feels towards that shock.

Imagine a coastal community vulnerable to hurricanes. Their exposure isn't solely based on geography; it's also their preparedness and resources, which determine how defensively they can respond to the impending storm.

So, double structure of vulnerability, two components; one is the exposure one and this exposure one according to Bohle that we can understand this exposure context from 3 different dimensions.

The concept of double vulnerability encompasses two main elements—exposure and susceptibility to harm. Bohle identifies three dimensions that help to contextualize exposure: human ecology, entitlement theory, and political-economic approaches.

Consider someone living in a flood-prone area: their exposure is high due to location (human ecological perspective), but if they have little economic power (entitlement theory), it is likely they can't invest in flood defenses, increasing their vulnerability.

Well to understand people's coping, we can also borrow the ideas from crisis and conflict kind of studies, who have the access to assets and resources and how it matter of conflict between individuals and groups.

Coping mechanisms refer to how individuals withstand shocks and crises. Studies suggest that accessing resources and assets often leads to conflicts, emphasizing the interconnectedness of vulnerability and resource distribution.

For instance, during a drought, water access can become a source of conflict in a community. Those with better access or connections may thrive, while others suffer, demonstrating how resource control can affect coping capabilities.

There is another more prominent and very popular conceptual idea of vulnerability is the sustainable livelihood framework. It is not really on vulnerability, but they are one of the pioneering approach that define and quoted the vulnerability.

The sustainable livelihood framework, originated by Robert Chambers and Conway, shifts the focus from vulnerability to understanding how livelihoods can be sustained despite risks. This model emphasizes that people's livelihoods should center on them, considering their vulnerabilities over time.

Imagine a community developing a local farm initiative. By focusing on sustainable agricultural practices, they improve food security, reduce vulnerability to market fluctuations, and enhance their resilience against disasters like floods.

When they are talking about vulnerability, it did not came from, did not come from the disaster perspective, but they are talking defining poor people and their livelihood in case of development and people at the center of their model.

The sustainable livelihoods approach emphasizes that vulnerability is primarily linked to people's livelihoods. Sustainable livelihoods are those that can withstand shocks while maintaining their capacity for development.

Think of a family that diversified its income through various small businesses instead of relying solely on one. When a crisis hits, their multiple income streams provide a buffer, making them less vulnerable.

So, vulnerability context is defined with 3 characteristics that people are at vulnerable because shock, trends, and seasonality.

The vulnerability context includes three key characteristics: shocks (sudden events like natural disasters), trends (slow changes such as population growth), and seasonality (seasonal variations affecting resources). Understanding these helps identify vulnerable situations.

A farmer might face seasonal hardships like drought affecting crop yield, compounded by long-term trends like soil degradation. These factors together illustrate the multi-dimensional context of their vulnerability.

So what are the shocks? One is the natural shocks like flood, drought, and cyclone. And health shocks like epidemic like cholera or even dengue.

Various types of shocks contribute to vulnerability, including natural disasters (like floods and cyclones) and health crises (like epidemics). Each type of shock presents unique challenges that affect individuals' well-being.

For example, during a flood, not only is physical safety at risk, but access to clean water and food can also be critically impacted, elevating vulnerability for the impacted populations.

Another one is the seasonality and seasonal shift in price like the price of the crops of the food for the agricultural labor or the productions because of production is low or high.

Seasonality affects the availability of jobs and prices in the agricultural sector, influencing people's livelihoods. Economic trends, like rapid population increase or technological changes, can also contribute to vulnerability over time.

Consider a seasonal fruit vendor whose income drops during the off-season, affecting their ability to sustain their family. This highlights how seasonality is tied to economic health and vulnerability.

Now, they both are interlinked, vulnerability, and capital. And also capital define that how and what extent they are vulnerable to particular shock.

In the context of vulnerability, different types of capital (such as financial, social, and physical) are critical. These forms of capital determine how vulnerable individuals are to specific shocks and how well they can cope.

Think of two families facing the same economic downturn. One has savings and strong community ties (social capital), while the other has none. The first is likely to withstand the shock better due to their diverse resources.

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