3.1. Natural Shocks

On the other hand, we have external one which we cannot less control, is an exogenous variable. What are they? External variables is considered in this double structure of vulnerability as exposure. So, exposure to what, some shock or some events like it depends on what kind of shocks, is it natural phenomena or some epidemics or not merely a kind of special exposure but how defenseless like I am for that one.

Vulnerability refers to the extent to which a person or community can be harmed by external shocks, which are unforeseen or uncontrollable events. These shocks can be natural disasters (like floods or earthquakes) or epidemics (such as diseases). The concept of exposure relates to how susceptible an individual or community is to these shocks, and how their personal circumstances can make them more defenseless against such events.

Imagine living in a coastal town. If a hurricane approaches, your exposure to that natural shock depends on various factors: how strong your house is, how prepared your community is, whether you have the means to evacuate, and whether your local government has efficient emergency services. People living in well-constructed houses with good emergency plans are less vulnerable compared to those without them.

Well to understand people's coping, we can also borrow the ideas from crisis and conflict kind of studies, who have the access to assets and resources and how it matter of conflict between individuals and groups...

To comprehend how individuals cope with vulnerability, we can learn from studies of crisis and conflict that examine access to resources. These studies highlight that competition over limited resources can lead to conflicts. Access to assets—such as social networks, finances, and community support—can influence how effectively people manage risks and recover from shocks.

Think about a neighborhood where some families have strong connections with local organizations that provide jobs and support. In a time of economic downturn, these families are likely to fare better than those without such networks, as they can quickly find help or employment while others struggle alone.

There is another more prominent and very popular conceptual idea of vulnerability is the sustainable livelihood framework... When they are talking about vulnerability, it did not came from, did not come from the disaster perspective, but they are talking defining poor people and their livelihood in case of development...

The sustainable livelihoods framework focuses on understanding how poor communities maintain their livelihoods amidst various shocks. Rather than strictly viewing vulnerability through the lens of disasters, this approach emphasizes long-term capacity-building and resilience. It recognizes that people's ability to sustain their livelihoods is influenced by a range of factors, including environmental, social, and economic conditions.

Consider a farmer in a drought-prone region. If the farmer practices sustainable agriculture—using water-efficient irrigation and crops that can withstand dry conditions—they are less vulnerable to the shock of drought. Their strategy helps them to maintain their livelihood and keeps their farm operational even in challenging times.

So, according to this model, people are actually operating, you know they are working in a context of vulnerability... the context of vulnerability? So, vulnerability context is defined with 3 characteristics that people are at vulnerable because shock, trends, and seasonality.

The context of vulnerability refers to the specific circumstances that increase the likelihood of hardships faced by individuals or communities. This context is shaped by three main factors: shocks (unexpected events like natural disasters), trends (long-term changes in society or the economy), and seasonality (variations that occur at certain times of the year, such as agricultural cycles). Each of these factors contributes to the overall vulnerability faced by people.

Consider a rural farming community that relies on seasonal rains for crops. In years where there is a drought (shock), coupled with a trend of decreasing rainfall over the past decade, the community faces increased vulnerability. If they also find that food prices spike seasonally, their ability to manage these shifts can determine their survival.

So what are the shocks? One is the natural shocks like flood, drought, and cyclone... These are all considered to be shocks that are increasing that under which people are living in a vulnerable context.

Shocks can be defined as sudden events that disrupt the normal functioning of a community or household. They can be categorized into natural shocks (like floods and droughts), health shocks (such as epidemics), economic shocks (like financial crises), and social shocks (including civil unrest). Understanding these shocks helps in analyzing how they affect people's livelihoods and well-being.

If a city experiences a major flood, this natural shock can displace families, destroy property, and disrupt access to food and healthcare. This situation highlights how such dramatic events can greatly increase vulnerability and require robust planning and resources to mitigate their impact.

So, how one look into these livelihood assets or capitals? Livelihood assets we say that there are 5 capitals; human capital, social capital, physical capital, financial capital, and natural capital.

Livelihood assets are resources that individuals or communities use to sustain their lives, and these can be grouped into five types: human capital (skills and education), social capital (networks and relationships), physical capital (infrastructure and tools), financial capital (money and access to resources), and natural capital (environmental resources). The combination and strength of these capitals define how vulnerable or resilient a person or community is to external shocks.

Picture a community with a skilled workforce (human capital), strong ties among residents (social capital), and good access to water and land (natural capital). This community is generally more resilient to shocks, like a sudden job loss or crop failure, compared to a community lacking these various forms of capital.

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