3.4. Seasonality and Trends

On the other hand, we have external one which we cannot less control, is an exogenous variable. What are they? External variables is considered in this double structure of vulnerability as exposure. So, exposure to what, some shock or some events like it depends on what kind of shocks, is it natural phenomena or some epidemics or not merely a kind of special exposure but how defenseless like I am for that one.

This chunk introduces the concept of external vulnerability, which refers to factors beyond our control that can make individuals or communities vulnerable. It emphasizes that vulnerability can arise from exposure to shocks, such as natural disasters or epidemics, and discusses the idea that one's defenselessness plays a critical role in how affected they may be by these external variables.

Imagine living in a coastal town that frequently faces hurricanes. The townspeople have limited control over the occurrence of hurricanes, which are external shocks. However, those with better preparedness measures (like stronger infrastructure) are less defenseless against such natural phenomena.

So, double structure of vulnerability, two components; one is the exposure one and this exposure one according to Bohle that we can understand this exposure context from 3 different dimensions. One is human ecological perspective, population dynamics, capacity to manage the environment, population growth, and how human ecology is looking at population growth and the capacity to manage the environment. And also the entitlement theory, the capacity theory and that the people have for control and to get to secure the means of their economic needs. And also the political-economic approach like the question of inequalities or disparities of assets, the power structures.

This chunk details the double structure of vulnerability, consisting of two main components: exposure and the underlying societal factors that influence this exposure. Bohle's framework suggests we can analyze vulnerability through three perspectives: human ecological perspectives (focusing on population dynamics and environmental management), entitlement (the ability to secure economic resources), and political-economic factors (such as inequality and power dynamics).

Consider a small village that is experiencing increased floods due to climate change (the exposure). The villagers crucially depend on their water management systems and local governance (human ecological perspective) to mitigate the impact of these floods. If the governmental support is lacking and there are societal inequalities (political-economic approach), their vulnerability to floods increases.

Well to understand people's coping, we can also borrow the ideas from crisis and conflict kind of studies, who have the access to assets and resources and how it matter of conflict between individuals and groups or maybe sometimes action theory approaches, how people act, react frequently as a result of social-economic and governmental constraints and model access to assets like a mitigation of vulnerability through access.

This chunk discusses how understanding people's coping mechanisms can help us analyze vulnerability. It highlights the importance of accessing resources and assets while addressing social conflicts that may arise from disparities. The chunk suggests that theories from crisis and conflict studies can aid in understanding how individuals or groups respond to vulnerabilities based on their access to resources and how structural inequalities can exacerbate these responses.

Think of a community affected by a violent conflict. Some individuals may have access to financial resources and education, allowing them to react and adapt effectively, while others may lack these resources, rendering them more vulnerable during times of crisis. The disparity in resources leads to conflict over limited assets and can increase overall community vulnerability.

There is another more prominent and very popular conceptual idea of vulnerability is the sustainable livelihood framework. It is not really on vulnerability, but they are one of the pioneering approaches that define and quote the vulnerability and which was now very regularly used in disaster risk and other risk management. So, this idea came originally developed by famous person Robert Chambers and Conway in 1992.

This chunk introduces the sustainable livelihood framework, a significant conceptual tool that, while not solely focused on vulnerability, aids in its understanding within the context of livelihood and development. Developed by Robert Chambers and Conway in 1992, this framework has become essential in disaster risk management, emphasizing the connections between poverty, livelihoods, and vulnerability.

In developing regions, a community relying on agriculture for their livelihood can relate to this framework. If crops fail due to a natural disaster, their ability to recover (vulnerability) can be assessed through the sustainable livelihood framework, which considers their resources, skills, and options for future employment.

Their focus is like one poor people and their livelihood. When they are talking about vulnerability, it did not came from, did not come from the disaster perspective, but they are talking defining poor people and their livelihood in case of development and people at the center of their model. People should be put into the center of the development and vulnerability is considered as a kind of shock or a kind of trend or seasonality that influence the capacity of the people to maintain their livelihood.

This chunk focuses on how the sustainable livelihood framework centers on individuals' livelihoods, especially among the poor. It argues that vulnerability should not exclusively be viewed from a disaster perspective but rather through the lens of how various external factors, such as seasonal changes or economic trends, impact people's ability to sustain their livelihoods.

Consider a farmer who faces fluctuating market prices for their crops. If prices drop significantly, it stresses their livelihood. This is a seasonal trend that directly affects their ability to maintain a sustainable income. Understanding this helps us design better supports for livelihoods rather than just responding to disasters.

So, vulnerability is directly connected with people's livelihood and their capacity to manage their livelihood basically. And two major components here, one is the sustainability, and livelihood. So, a livelihood becomes sustainable in different conditions or a livelihood should be considered as sustainable. When it is resilient to face any kind of external shocks like natural disasters or epidemics that they can absorb this shock, they can bounce back, they will not finish.

Here, the relationship between vulnerability and livelihoods is explored, emphasizing that a livelihood can be sustainable if it is resilient and can recover from adverse situations. To be sustainable, a livelihood should not rely on external assistance and should withstand shocks, maintaining its core functionality over time.

A good analogy is a rubber band. A sustainable livelihood, like a well-made rubber band, can stretch under pressure (external shocks) but will return to its original shape afterward. This resiliency is a sign of sustainability in the face of difficulties.

So, according to this model, people are actually operating, you know they are working in a context of vulnerability. What is the context of vulnerability? So, vulnerability context is defined with 3 characteristics that people are at vulnerable because shock, trends, and seasonality.

This chunk explains that people's vulnerability can be defined within a context characterized by shocks, trends, and seasonality. Each of these elements contributes to the challenges individuals face in maintaining their livelihoods, leading to heightened vulnerability.

For example, a farmer in a drought-prone region is vulnerable due to shocks (unexpected dry spells), trends (long-term climate changes), and seasonality (specific planting and harvesting times). All these factors must be considered when assessing the farmer's vulnerability.

So what are the shocks? One is the natural shocks like flood, drought, and cyclone. And health shocks like epidemic like cholera or even dengue let us say, or economic shocks like some financial recessions or maybe death in the family for a household or maybe violence like civil war in case of Syria or in many other countries in case of Sri Lanka when they were in civil war or in case of Bosnia.

This segment identifies the different types of shocks that can contribute to vulnerability. It encompasses natural shocks (like floods and droughts), health shocks (epidemics), economic shocks (financial difficulties), and social disruptions (violence and conflict). Each of these shocks can lead to a decline in individuals’ or communities’ ability to sustain themselves.

For instance, consider a family living in a region prone to flooding. Each time a flood occurs (a natural shock), it disrupts their farming, leading to food shortages and financial strain. Similarly, if they faced a health crisis (health shock), their capacity to recover from the flood is further compromised.

Another one is the seasonality and seasonal shift in price like the price of the crops of the food for the agricultural labor or the productions because of production is low or high, because of climate change maybe the production is not so high this year. Or maybe the food availability or employment opportunity, how many days I have employment opportunity in a particular season.

This chunk discusses seasonality and how it affects vulnerability through shifts in product prices and employment opportunities. Seasonal changes can lead to fluctuations in crop yields and market prices, which in turn impact a person's capacity to maintain their livelihood. Employment may also be seasonal, limiting available work during specific times of the year.

Imagine a town where people work in agriculture. During harvest season, they might find plenty of jobs and good wages. However, as seasonality changes and the harvest ends, job opportunities disappear, leaving many without income and making them vulnerable until the next season starts.

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